Why Housing Affordability Just Jumped 23% (And June’s 6-Year Record) | Week in Review

Think the New Zealand property market is locked in permanent doom and gloom? Think again! Massey University's latest data reveals a staggering 23.1% annual jump in housing affordability, right alongside a historic 6-year high surge in June market activity. 

In this week's episode, Debbie Roberts strips away the media's negativity bias to show you where the real opportunities are hiding. Learn why Canterbury is hitting all-time high records, how to navigate the banks' confusing new split-direction mortgage rates, and why counter-cyclical buyers are preparing to reap massive rewards as the longest market downturn since the 1970s begins to mature.

Detailed Episode Breakdown & Sources

1. ANZ Forecasts & Interest Rate Trims

Despite predicting a mild 2% drop in national property values due to election-year tax uncertainty, wholesale interest rates have eased off after geopolitical de-escalations. Savvy buyers are utilizing this brief calm to manufacture equity and negotiate prices directly with vendors on the ground. 

2. June’s 6-Year Listing Surge & Canterbury Dominance

Kiwi property sellers are officially done waiting around for "perfect" market conditions. June saw the highest volume of transaction activity in six years, with total stock climbing to 34,761 homes, giving buyers ultimate leverage. Meanwhile, Canterbury hit an all-time record average asking price of over $757,000. 

3. The Double-Digit Affordability Boost

Massey University's Home Affordability Index reveals a massive 12.6% quarterly gain and a phenomenal 23.1% annual surge in nationwide housing affordability. A stellar combination of lower fixed interest rates, rising incomes, and corrected vendor expectations has opened up a brilliant buying window across Auckland, Wellington, and Northland. 

4. ASB’s Split-Direction Rate Adjustments

Commercial lenders are rewriting the mortgage playbook ahead of the next major OCR shifts. ASB executed a series of split-direction moves—bumping up short-term 6-month options while simultaneously cutting long-term 3 to 5-year fixed mortgage rates down significantly. 

5. Social Housing Realities & Private Landlords

With emergency housing numbers under strict review, 30% of declined applicants are left navigating the accommodation gap without direct government help. This underscores the critical, socially valuable role private property investors play in providing stable, reliable long-term housing solutions without dragging on the taxpayer. 

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Transcript

Podcast Episode Transcript: June 28 – July 4, 2026

Show: The Week in Review

Host: Debbie Roberts

Episode Date: July 10, 2026 

 Intro: Cutting Through the Media’s Negativity Bias

Debbie: Kia ora everyone. I'm Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice, and this is the Week in Review for the 28th of June to the 4th of July, 2026. 

 Topic 1: ANZ OCR Forecasts vs. Short-Term Retail Rate Cuts

Debbie: First up for this week, from Good Returns on the 28th of June: ANZ still expects three OCR rises this year. Now, this article was published right before the official OCR announcement on the 8th of July, and wow, a lot can happen in a short timeframe these days! 

Despite a sudden and unexpected drop in global oil prices following a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran—which is obviously now completely up in the air again following an apparent end to the ceasefire—ANZ economists are still expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, which they did. They are also still expecting subsequent hikes in September and October, which would take the cash rate to a neutral 3% position. 

The RBNZ was already forecasting three cash rate hikes before the temporary oil price spike occurred, meaning that the low starting point of the OCR remained the primary driver for monetary policy tightening. Easing oil prices were expected to help cool near-term inflation and buy the central bank more time, but they don't eliminate the structural need for higher interest rates as growth and consumer confidence rebound. 

Mainly due to these developments, ANZ shifted its forecast to expect an outright 2% decline in national house prices this year. They see this driven by rising interest rates, substantial tax uncertainty ahead of the general election, and the lagging economic drag of the recent oil shock. Because of this, the housing market has recently sat on a largely flat path; while buyers have stepped back, many sellers have also hit pause, preventing any immediate, severe downward pressure on prices. On the mortgage front, wholesale interest rates fell following the de-escalation in the Middle East, leading to recent short-term mortgage rate cuts by several retail banks. 

My thoughts on this are that the most important thing to remember here is that predictions often prove to be completely useless in hindsight. Remember how economists all around the world expected economies and housing markets to collapse during the global pandemic, and then the absolute opposite happened? 

So, will we see a 2% dip in house prices? Here's what I think: remember that some parts of the country, like Christchurch for example, are actually seeing price increases at the moment. Don't get hung up on the national averages or the medians when it comes to capital growth or price dips. You have no control over market-wide capital growth, but the underlying fundamentals always hold true. Property investing is a long-term strategy, and we absolutely expect to see long-term capital growth. 

The fact of the matter is that in the current market, you make your money when you buy. You do that by negotiating hard on the purchase price and adding structural value to the property. If values soften further in the short term, you've already built in a safety buffer by buying below the market. More importantly, when the market does start to swing upward again—and it absolutely will—you'll feel like a genius for buying well right now. 

It's never about trying to time the market perfectly, because that is next to impossible to do. It's simply about taking action when you are financially ready, buying the right type of asset for your position, and holding onto it for the long term. If values fluctuate, you only ever lock in a loss if you choose to sell while the market is down. 

I'll discuss the details of the official OCR announcement in our next Week in Review, but as you know, the RBNZ did indeed increase the OCR by 25 basis points on the 8th of July. In the meantime, everyone enjoyed the temporary reduction at the petrol pump, so let's hope that lasts for a bit! Several retail banks responded quickly by trimming their short-term interest rates because the wholesale market had already priced these moves in, but we'll see what happens next as global tensions evolve. 

 Topic 2: The 6-Year Listing Boom & Canterbury’s Record Asking Prices

Debbie: Topic number two from times.co.nz on the 2nd of July: June was the most active month in the housing market in six years. 

Realestate.co.nz reports that June 2026 was the busiest month for property vendors since 2020, signaling that New Zealanders are no longer pausing transactions to wait for economic or geopolitical uncertainty to pass. Nationally, new listings rose 4.3% year-on-year to 7,942 in June, while total available stock climbed 7.3% to 34,761 properties, providing highly favorable and relaxed conditions for active buyers. 

Canterbury has emerged as the country's leading regional success story for capital growth, hitting an all-time record average asking price of $757,136. That's an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, marking its second record high in 2026 after hitting $736,421 back in April. Canterbury's price growth represents a fundamental transition from a recovering earthquake zone a decade ago to a region characterized by high livability, major infrastructure projects like the Te Kaha Stadium, and strong population growth. 

On a national basis, average asking prices have remained locked in an exceptionally flat corridor between $840,000 and $890,000 for three and a half years, indicating a prolonged phase of macroeconomic stability. 

Highly localized dynamics are driving regional listings and inventory. Central Otago and the Lakes District remains the most expensive region in New Zealand, with average asking prices hitting $1,605,575—an increase of 6.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the volatile Coromandel market fell 13.9% year-on-year to $996,260, dropping below the one-million-dollar mark for the first time since September 2024. 

My thoughts on this are that there is a genuine sense of momentum returning to the market. People are finally realizing that waiting for a perfectly predictable market is a complete myth, and they're choosing to get on with life and achieve their property goals. Look at Canterbury—it is absolutely thriving with another record-high average asking price, backed by a robust local economy and incredible new infrastructure. While national prices have stayed remarkably steady and flat for over three and a half years, providing a safe and stable environment, the real action is happening at the local level. 

Look at Southland, which is experiencing a solid absorption phase; listings are up nearly 25%, but overall inventory is actually dropping because buyers are snapping houses up faster than they're being listed. With over 34,000 homes available across the country right now, active buyers are in an amazing position. You have the luxury of time, massive choice, and the negotiation leverage to secure a fantastic property on your own terms without the stress of intense, frantic competition. 

History shows us that counter-cyclical investing pays off in spades. If you're in a position to take action now while the crowd is sitting on the sidelines waiting for more certainty, you will reap the rewards. When the rest of the market finally gains confidence and floods back in, all of that pent-up demand is going to impact property values dynamically. We are currently on track to having the longest market downturn since the early 1970s, and values picked up incredibly fast after that cycle moved through. History has a funny way of repeating itself. 

 Topic 3: Massey University Data: The Incredible 23.1% Affordability Surge

Debbie: Topic number three from RNZ on the 30th of June: here's where housing is most affordable, and where it's becoming more so. 

Massey University's Q1 2026 Home Affordability Report shows a major 12.6% improvement in national housing affordability over the first three months of the year. This quarterly improvement was driven by a highly favorable trifecta: a drop in median house prices across many regions, declining mortgage interest rates, and a steady increase in household incomes. 

On an annual basis, national housing affordability surged by an extraordinary 23.1%. This was fueled by a 1.37 percentage point drop in two-year fixed mortgage interest rates and a 3.49% increase in average weekly earnings, easily outpacing a modest 3% annual rise in median house prices. 

Median house prices fell in eight out of the 16 regions tracked, led by a steep 11.5% contraction in Marlborough, which subsequently recorded the country's most significant quarterly affordability improvement of 21.7%. Northland led the country in annual affordability improvements with a massive 32% lift, closely followed by Auckland at 25%, Wellington at 24.3%, and Canterbury at 23.4%. The West Coast of the South Island recorded the smallest quarterly affordability lift at 5.5%, but it remains New Zealand's most affordable market overall, while Auckland continues to rank as the least affordable. 

Report author Senior Lecturer Ashad Javed noted that the widespread reassessment of rateable values, or RVs, across most regions served as a critical catalyst for bringing down vendor price expectations and correcting overall values. However, Javed issues a critical forward-looking warning: any potential increases to the Official Cash Rate by the RBNZ in future monetary policy announcements could lift mortgage rates and quickly erode these hard-won affordability gains. 

This is an absolute green light for home buyers and investors. Massey University's latest report shows a 12% increase in housing affordability in just three months and a whopping 23% improvement over the last year. Why isn't this being talked about more by the mainstream media? This is fantastic news, but I guess good news doesn't grab headlines quite like bad news does! 

While these conditions are highly favorable right now, they won't last forever. If your household income is steady, you've got a rare, lucrative opportunity to step in and secure a great deal before the market enters the next growth phase. 

If you're getting value out of this podcast, please open up your Apple Podcasts or Spotify app right now and hit that follow button. It's the number one way to help us help more first-time buyers and property investors gain access to quality content. 

And if you want to learn more about how to navigate this climate safely, join me at one of our free online sessions called How to Succeed with Property Investing. In these events, we focus entirely on increasing your knowledge to reduce your risk. As a financial adviser and experienced investor, I'll help you navigate the current market with far more confidence so you can make smarter decisions. We are completely independent because we don't sell property. Go to propertyapprentice.co.nz to register for the next free event. 

 Topic 4: ASB’s Split-Direction Rate Shakeup: Who Wins the Mortgage Game?

Debbie: Topic number four from 1News on the 1st of July: major bank lifts some mortgage rates and slashes others. 

ASB announced a series of split-direction rate adjustments, lowering its longer-term mortgage rates while simultaneously increasing two of its shorter-term rates. For borrowers with at least 20% equity, ASB raised its six-month mortgage term by 20 basis points to 4.69%, and its 18-month term by 14 basis points to 5.09%. 

Conversely, for those same borrowers with 20% equity, the bank lowered its three-year rate by 20 basis points to 5.29%, its four-year term by 20 basis points to 5.49%, and its five-year term by a significant 30 basis points to 5.59%. Remember, these are the publicly advertised prices; borrowers with less than 20% equity will face additional low-equity margin pricing on top. 

On the deposit side, ASB adjusted its term deposit pricing downward, lowering its 24-month, 36-month, 48-month, and 60-month term deposit rates by between 10 and 25 basis points. This pricing adjustment mirrors highly volatile international wholesale interest rate markets and represents the second major retail bank re-pricing of the week, closely following Kiwibank's adjustments. 

We're seeing a lot of movement from the banks with interest rates at the moment, and it pays to remember that banks are constantly tweaking their pricing structures to stay competitive enough to attract your business. If you've got better things to do with your time than shopping around all the major banks yourself, it is time to talk to a mortgage adviser. It costs you absolutely nothing because they get paid by the banks upon settlement, but remember, mortgage advisers work for you, not the bank. They've got your best interests at heart and will make sure you get the best possible structure for your long-term goals. 

 Topic 5: Emergency Housing Data & The Vital Social Value of Private Investors

Debbie: Topic number five from RNZ on the 2nd of July: a third of those declined emergency housing are not offered any alternative. 

Strict eligibility assessments mean that 30% of individuals declined for emergency housing in New Zealand are not offered any alternative housing support, such as transitional housing, social housing, rent arrears support, or private rental bond advances. Following policy directives established two years ago, emergency housing has been classified as a strict last resort, with the Ministry of Social Development implementing performance targets for managers to actively reduce emergency housing numbers. While MSD claims 70% of declined applicants are offered alternative support, the department doesn't track or monitor the living arrangements or welfare of the remaining 30% who are turned away without assistance. 

Upon being questioned by Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon repeatedly pointed out the other alternatives offered to those in need, stating that if someone doesn't qualify for emergency housing, they might still qualify for transitional housing, social housing, rent arrears support, or find a private rental property. In parliamentary debates, the government defended its housing record, stating that housing is more affordable, rents are down, the social housing waitlist is down, and 2,400 kids are out of squalid motels. 

However, the Ministry of Housing's latest Homelessness Insights report indicates that while rough sleeping in central Auckland has decreased since September, most regional councils nationwide have noticed an increase in unsheltered individuals over the last six months. 

This data is a powerful reminder of the incredibly positive and essential role that private property investors play in New Zealand. Because private rentals don't cost the taxpayer anything, they are the single most efficient way to house Kiwis who need to rent. By building a reliable, well-managed property portfolio, you aren't just securing your own financial freedom; you are providing real, quality housing solutions that our communities desperately need. Not everyone is in a position to buy a home at any given moment in time, even though housing is currently the most affordable it's been in a decade—but everyone certainly needs somewhere safe to live. Residential property remains one of the most resilient, secure, and socially valuable assets you can own. 

 Outro: Why Sitting on the Sidelines Could Cost You the Next Cycle

Debbie: I want to hear from you in the comments: are you feeling the improvements in housing affordability and the growth in the economy yet, or are you still focused on the negativity bias provided by the media? Let me know your thoughts below! 

If this breakdown gave you some clarity or the motivation you need to work towards your property plans this week, please hit that Subscribe button and give this video a like. And if you want to learn more about how to become a successful property investor in New Zealand without risking it all, join me at our next free online event, How to Succeed with Property Investing. You can register right now by going to propertyapprentice.co.nz. Thanks for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode!