Trapped Together: How a 17% House Price Drop Is Forcing Exes Under One Roof

Think a 17% market dip is all bad news? Think again! While falling house prices are creating some bizarre living arrangements for separating couples, they are also opening up the single greatest buying window in a decade. In this episode of The Week in Review, Debbie Roberts reveals why savvy first-home buyers just grabbed a record 27.7% market share, how you can use bank logic to beat election-year panic, and how to turn today's flat market into your ultimate wealth-building launchpad.

The 17% Market Drop and The Ex-Partner Dilemma Property values are down 17% from the 2021 peak, leaving some peak-boom buyers in negative equity and forcing 60% of separating couples to temporarily cohabit under one roof. While this structural down-cycle creates short-term friction for sellers, it leaves the field completely wide open for smart buyers to lock in discounted floor pricing with zero competition.

The Election Reality Check Election years always cause a temporary wait-and-see slowdown, but data proves commercial banks never alter core credit criteria based on campaign promises. Lending rules depend entirely on Reserve Bank regulations and funding costs rather than political rhetoric, allowing savvy buyers to confidently exploit this quiet window. Source: New Zealand Adviser 

First-Home Buyers Grab a Record 27.7% Share While overall transaction volumes are down 4.7% year-to-date, first-home buyers are absolutely thriving in current conditions. They have bucked the trend to execute 10,025 purchases and capture an all-time record 27.7% market share by taking action while investors and movers sit on the sidelines. Source: 1News 

The Trans-Tasman Brain Drain Reversals The Kiwi brain drain has hit a major turning point, with citizen departures falling 4.7% and returning citizen arrivals jumping 7.1% as Kiwis escape Australia's sky-high house prices and brutal rental markets. With New Zealand’s quarterly GDP growth at 0.8% actively outpacing Australia's sluggish economy at 0.3%, this returning capital adds an exceptionally solid foundation for future property stability. Source: New Zealand Herald 

The KiwiSaver and Superannuation Saving Rules Actuaries suggest a 10% total KiwiSaver rate is the optimal default setup, but political frameworks aim to mandate a 12% baseline by 2032 to match international standards. Because economic modeling shows future means-testing for NZ Super is highly likely, building an independent property portfolio is now your best tool for long-term retirement security. Source: New Zealand Herald 

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Transcript

PODCAST EPISODE TRANSCRIPT: JUNE 21–27, 2026

Speaker: Debbie Roberts Show: The Week in Review Episode Date: June 21–27, 2026 Intro: Shifting Demographics vs Political Promises

Debbie: Hi, everyone. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial adviser at Property Apprentice. This week, we're pulling back the curtain on what actually drives the housing market during an election year. While political parties trade big promises on the campaign trail, industry data proves that core lending criteria and bank behavior remain completely unmoved by political rhetoric. Instead, it's borrower psychology and shifting demographics that move the dial. Today, we're breaking down a debate that could change your future KiwiSaver contributions, a reality check on how a down market is physically trapping separating couples under one roof, and the economic reversal that is quietly slowing down the Trans-Tasman brain drain. Plus, we look at the latest buyer numbers showing one specific group capturing an all-time record slice of the real estate pie. Let's get into it. Topic 1: Beyond the Headlines – Understanding the Real Impact of Elections on Mortgage Lending

Debbie: So first up for this week in review from New Zealand Adviser on the 25th of June: beyond the headlines, understanding the real impact of elections on mortgage lending. Election year typically triggers a temporary wait-and-see approach among buyers, causing a modest pre-election slowdown as buyers pause to seek clarity on future housing and investment policies. Despite political uncertainty, personal life drivers like career shifts and family changes ensure that transaction activity doesn't come to a complete standstill. Instead, deferred decisions frequently lead to a compressed surge of market activity immediately following polling day.

Commercial lenders don't materially restructure their core credit policies or risk appetites in response to campaign promises or political announcements. Bank lending parameters remain strictly dictated by Reserve Bank regulations, funding costs, arrears performance, and macroeconomic conditions rather than political rhetoric. Mortgage advisers provide vital stabilization during these cycles by using scenario-based servicing assessments to help clients assess how their financial positions hold up across various interest rate environments. Core lending criteria remains largely consistent amid domestic political shifts, though subtle conservatism can occasionally emerge at the margins in complex deal structures or investor-specific lending. The current election environment is unique because domestic political noise is intersecting with high global volatility, including geopolitical tension, offshore economic decisions, and international funding market swings.

My thoughts on this are every time an election year rolls around, we see the exact same thing: a bit of a slowdown in the market as people adopt a wait-and-see approach, especially when there's discussion around things relating to the property market like capital gains tax or interest deductibility removal, and so on. But the industry leaders are telling us that lenders don't change their credit policies based on campaign trail promises. Want to know why? Because the majority of buyers are home buyers, not property investors. Property investors get the jitters, whereas home buyers just take advantage of the opportunities available. For smart investors, this pre-election quiet window is actually a great window of opportunity. While other buyers are worrying about what may or may not happen after the election, you can negotiate great deals with less competition. Don't let uncertainty derail your timeline. Focus on your long-term personal goals and the underlying mathematical fundamentals of the deal. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter who's in the hot seat in Wellington when you're looking at a long-term investment like property. Topic 2: Experts Split on Ideal KiwiSaver Contribution as New Zealand Super Future Is Debated

Debbie: Topic number two from the New Zealand Herald on the 23rd of June: experts split on ideal KiwiSaver contribution as New Zealand Super future is debated. A report by the New Zealand Society of Actuaries Retirement Income Interest Group—a tongue twister if ever I've heard one—states that a five percent member plus five percent employer contribution rate is probably the optimal default setup for KiwiSaver, provided that New Zealand superannuation remains structurally unchanged. Actuaries point out that an aggressive six percent plus six percent contribution matrix could leave lower and middle-income earners with higher spending power during retirement than they had during their working years, especially when compared to periods with major life expenses like childcare. While a 12% total savings rate might overshoot requirements for lower income brackets, higher earners might still struggle to replace their income adequately at that level. But they might not need to replace their incomes in order to fund a comfortable retirement anyway if they're on a high income while they're working.

If a KiwiSaver first home withdrawal is used when people are aged 40 plus, this can severely impact the KiwiSaver balance at retirement age and will require higher contribution rates after the first home withdrawal to recover financially. Actuarial interest groups caution that setting default contribution rules too high risks backfiring by prompting financially squeezed workers to suspend their retirement savings entirely. Economists warn that current modeling relies heavily on the assumption of an unaltering state pension, suggesting that future means-testing of New Zealand superannuation is a highly probable political reality required to maintain long-term dignity for the elderly. Financial industry founders argue that introducing mandatory retirement contributions represents a covert political stepping stone towards eventual means-testing of the state pension. The National Party's unveiled policy framework targets a combined mandatory savings baseline of 12% by 2032 to bring New Zealand in line with international standards seen in Australia and Canada.

My thoughts on this are, while I believe that mandatory KiwiSaver contributions are a vital pathway to securing a comfortable retirement independent of state funding, my primary concern is the potential impact on low-income workers. If contributions become compulsory and employers choose to bundle the employer portion into the total salary package rather than paying it on top, lower-income earners could be severely disadvantaged. Without a wage increase to offset these new requirements, they'll ultimately see a significant drop in their weekly take-home pay. So in my opinion, the ability for employers to take their employer contribution out of the salary that is being paid to employees is something that needs to change. It should be an additional contribution from the employers, not part of the salary package. Topic 3: Trapped Under One Roof – Separating Couples Face the 17% Down-Market Reality

Debbie: Topic number three from RNZ on the 24th of June: the market has moved underneath them, and separating couples are watching house prices fall. Nationwide property values have declined by roughly 17% since the 2021 market peak (although there was an over 16% increase in the two months just leading up to that peak), and there have been deeper contractions occurring across Auckland and Wellington. This down cycle has trapped some peak-period buyers in negative equity, exemplified by a Hamilton home dropping from $850,000 down to $670,000 and an Auckland North Shore property falling from $2.4 million to $1.7 million estimated market value. An estimated 60% of separating couples now choose to cohabit temporarily because their diminished equity cannot fund two independent households of a similar standard.

Unsurprisingly, you shouldn't expect to divide one asset and be able to buy two properties of a similar standard—you are effectively halving your wealth. Disagreements regarding whether to sell at a loss or hold out for a market turnaround represent a major source of post-separation friction, frequently leading to messy legal disputes when one partner abruptly vacates without an agreement. CoreLogic intelligence shows that the days-to-sell indicator is elevated, particularly within the mid-to-upper owner-occupier segments, as potential movers remain stationary and shrink the available buyer pool. Separation rates are rising among women transitioning to single-income status and mature couples in their 50s, 60s, and 70s who suffer from a lack of recovery time to rebuild their wealth after losing up to a third of their home's value. Harcourts transaction data demonstrates that while roughly 70% of separating partners wish to buy out their spouse's share, the vast majority are financially unable to do so because they need both of their incomes to support that level of debt, leaving them with few options outside of a joint market sale.

My thoughts on this are that when one partner wants to sell to cut their losses and the other refuses to exit in a down market, the emotional and legal toll escalates dramatically. This environment is particularly brutal for older couples in their 50s and 60s who have fewer working years left on the clock to rebuild their asset base from scratch. As our accountant often says, "Divorce and separation is the fastest way to halve your wealth." So choose your life partner carefully. If you ever find yourself co-buying, it is vitally important to seek legal advice before entering into a purchase. Even before that, get yourself a legal agreement protecting what each of you brings into the relationship. Some might say that's cynical, but it's better than the alternative. If you're getting value out of this podcast, please open up your Apple Podcasts or Spotify app right now and hit that follow button. It's the number one way to help us to help more first-time buyers and property investors gain access to quality content. And if you want to learn more about investing, join me at one of our free online events called "How to Succeed with Property Investing." In these events, we focus entirely on increasing your knowledge to help you build the right strategy to create wealth over the long term. As a financial adviser and an experienced investor, I'll help you to navigate the current market with more confidence and hopefully help you make smarter decisions. We're live, online, and independent, which means we don't sell property. Go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to register for the next free event. Topic 4: The Great Aussie Dream Shakes – Why Kiwis are Choosing to Come Home

Debbie: Fourth topic for this week in review from the New Zealand Herald on the 26th of June: brain drain easing as more New Zealanders choose to come home. Stats NZ data reveals that the post-pandemic brain drain is slowing down, with the number of New Zealand citizens moving offshore dropping 4.7% in the year to April, while citizen arrivals rose by 7.1%. While the net loss of New Zealand citizens moving away still outnumbers those returning by about 37,300, this citizen deficit has decreased 8.3% from the year prior and 18.8% from two years earlier. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures confirm that New Zealand citizen arrivals in Australia peaked in the 12 months leading to March of last year and have since trended downward, while departures of New Zealanders from Australia are rising.

Macroeconomic indicators show that New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in the March quarter, outperforming Australia's slowing GDP growth of 0.3%. Reserve Bank forecasts suggest that New Zealand's economic growth will continue to outpace Australia's over the next two years, indicating that the local market is turning upward from a lower base while Australia is showing signs of fatigue. Government officials and economists observe that returning citizens frequently encounter tight rental markets, highly competitive job conditions, steep house prices, and added stamp duty fees across the Tasman. Despite trade union commentary noting that New Zealand still trails Australia in wages and lower-income workers' rights, heightened global volatility is reinforcing New Zealand's position as a stable, safe haven for residents to remain anchored.

My thoughts on this are that the narrative around the great Kiwi brain drain to Australia has officially hit its turning point. New Zealand's quarterly GDP grew by 0.8%, completely outpacing Australia's sluggish 0.3% growth. Australia's economy is showing undeniable signs of fatigue, while New Zealand is turning upward from a lower base. Many Kiwis who chased the dream across the Tasman are returning after realizing the grassroots reality: Australian house prices are incredibly steep in some areas in comparison to New Zealand, stamp duty is an immense upfront hurdle, and the rental markets are also brutally competitive, meaning high rents are paid over there. The grass isn't always greener, I guess. In an increasingly volatile global environment, New Zealand's status as a stable, secure safe haven is starting to really assert itself. For property owners, an economy that is forecast to outpace Australia over the next two years provides an exceptionally solid foundation for future capital stability. And with fewer Kiwis crossing the ditch or returning home to New Zealand and maybe entering the property market here, what effect do you think that is going to have on New Zealand house prices in the near future? It's all about supply and demand, remember? So if you're looking at buying, what are you waiting for? Topic 5: First Home Buyers Defy Mainstream Headlines with 27.7% Market Share

Debbie: Topic number five from 1News on the 25th of June: first home buyers grab their moment in a soft market. CoreLogic buyer classification data reveals that first home buyers are the largest sector in the property market, now making up 27.7% of all purchases. This represents an approximate two percent increase in their purchase activity compared to a year ago. While overall property sales fell 4.7% year-to-date, down to 36,152 transactions, first home buyers bucked the trend by executing 10,025 purchases, which is an increase from 9,794 during the same period in 2025. Economists suggest this buying momentum is partially driven by an absence of market competition and an urgency to buy before potential interest rate hikes occur later in the year.

In contrast, transaction activity for owner-occupier movers dropped 11% year-to-date and investor participation fell six percent due to economic and employment uncertainty alongside fears of potential tax rule changes if we get a change of government. Abundant choice continues to keep property prices flat, with national values down 0.6% year-on-year. Three-month metrics show minor drops in Auckland, down 0.5%, and Wellington down 0.6%, offset by a 1.4% gain in Christchurch. New Zealand's residential real estate is worth a combined $1.67 trillion, with $398 billion in mortgage debt accounting for roughly 48% of all household assets. So real estate in New Zealand is absolutely a huge chunk of our wealth. Rental prices show early signs of stabilizing at a floor, with a modest annualized increase of 0.7% recorded in May, though further sharp rises are constrained by slow migration and high rent-to-income ratios.

So let's think about the mechanics of this. In a quiet market where overall sales volumes are dropping, first-home buyers are actively closing more deals, executing over 10,000 purchases so far this year, literally proving the media wrong when they talk about how impossible it is for first-home buyers to get their foot on the property ladder these days. So why is it that first-home buyers are stepping up when other buyer groups appear to be stepping back? Firstly, I'd suggest it's because first-home buyers don't care about what's happening with capital growth. They care about how much money they're wasting each week on rent versus how much money they can borrow from the bank to buy their own home. Then they go house hunting. In the early stages of a property market recovery, we often see the first-home buyers taking action before anyone else. Inexperienced property investors generally wait until capital growth starts increasing, hoping that will give them more certainty in the property market, but completely missing out on the market conditions that favor buyers just like we're seeing now. Without a doubt, many of those property investors will look back in time and regret not taking action in current market conditions, because we might not see these conditions again for another decade or so. Outro: Capitalizing on Decadal Opportunities

Debbie: If that sounds like you, but you're scared of making a mistake because of your inexperience in the property market, we're here to help. If you want to learn how to spot the opportunities in this current shifting landscape and structure your property investment journey with lower risk, join me at one of our next free online events called "How to Succeed With Property Investing." Get your spot right now by going to propertyapprentice.co.nz or click the link in the show notes of this video. What have you got to lose?

And I also want to hear from you in the comments. With first-time buyers currently taking a record 27.7% share of the market due to a temporary drop in investor and mover competition, do you think now is the absolute best time to buy, or are you one of the people that's waiting until after the election results are locked in? Let me know your thoughts below. If this breakdown helped to give you some clarity that you need in order to navigate the market this week, please hit that Subscribe button and give this video a like. Your support helps us cut through the media noise and empower more Kiwis to build long-term wealth. Thanks for listening. I'll see you in the next episode.