Aussies Buying in NZ & The $54M Price Reset | NZ Property Insights Ep. 12

Are sellers finally meeting the market? This week, Paul and Debbie Roberts dive into new data showing $54.7 million was cut from New Zealand asking prices in just three months. We look at why the "expectation gap" is closing and what that means for your next negotiation. 

We also tackle the rising hurdle of insurability—why "short memories" about flood risks are being replaced by a permanent shift in how banks and insurers view risk. Plus, find out why an Aussie influx is targeting New Zealand for both value and safety. 

Highlights:

• The $33k Average Drop: Breaking down the 1,647 properties that adjusted their prices. 
• Insurance "Future-Proofing": The critical IFSO ruling that places the cost of better rebuilding on you. 
• The Brisbane Comparison: Why NZ land is currently "really cheap" for Australian investors. 

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Transcript

v Welcome back to New Zealand Property Insights. I'm Paul Roberts. And I'm Debbie Roberts. We're the owners of Property Apprentice, and we're here to help you navigate the New Zealand property market with facts, not just headlines. 📍 Today we're opening episode 12 with some new figures from the first quarter of 2026. We've seen more than $54 million cut from property asking prices across New Zealand as sellers finally start to adjust their expectations to match what buyers are actually willing to pay. We'll also be looking at the short memory phenomenon regarding flood-affected properties. With insurance premiums climbing, is the 18-month price discount for flood zones a thing of the past? And finally, we're discussing a growing trend of Australians buying into the New Zealand market. When two hectares in Central Otago cost less than a one-bedroom unit in Brisbane, you know the Trans-Tasman value gap has reached a tipping point. So let's dive into this. Segment one, sellers adjust as $54 million cut from asking prices. We're kicking off today with fresh data from www.realestate.co.nz that shows $54.7 million was wiped from asking prices in the first quarter of 2026. While that sounds like a massive number, it's actually about $8 million less than the total cuts we saw in the same period last year, and it is a nationwide figure, obviously, not just one property. So that's an important distinction. Even though there are more homes on the market, the amount of discounting is actually slowing down. It suggests that the expectation gap between sellers and buyers is finally starting to close So let's have a look at some facts. Realestate.co.nz reports that $54.7 million was cut from asking prices in quarter one of 2026 across 1,647 properties nationwide. This calculates to be an average reduction of about $33,212 per property, which isn't a huge price drop on average. Mm. It also represents 4.9% of all listings, a slight decrease from the 5.2% of listings that saw price drops in quarter one 2025. Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams noted that the data suggests sellers are becoming more realistic. They are reading the room by pricing properties closer to buyers' expectations from the start, although, as we say, it's not a huge gap now. Regionally, Coromandel saw the largest average price trim at $72,049, followed by Wellington at $51,841. In contrast, Auckland and Canterbury saw the least discounting, which is good that Auckland's now in that range with Canterbury, with just 2% of listings reducing their numbers during that quarter. Manawatu, Wanganui, and Northland recorded the highest share of price drops with a 12 and an 11% of listings respectively needing to adjust. And so I think the term reading the room is perfect here. In the past, we've seen people list at hopeful prices and then chase the market down. This data suggests that the message is finally sinking in. If you wanna sell in the current market, you've gotta meet the market where it is today. And for an investor, this is a clear signal that we're still very much in a buyer's market. For sellers, it reinforces getting the right price from the start is key. You don't want your property sitting on the market for longer than necessary and getting tired, and then showing everyone how motivated to sell you are by reducing your price week-on-week. People might start to wonder if there's something wrong with your property instead of realizing that it was just priced too high to begin with. So second segment for this week, floods insurance and the short memory problem. Our second segment today looks at the topic that has been hitting home for many New Zealanders lately. With a recent inundations in Wellington and Wairarapa, the conversation around flood affected properties is becoming more relevant. Historically, Kiwis have had very short memories when it comes to weather events and house prices. But as these storms become more frequent, we might start to see a fundamental shift in how buyers, banks, and insurers view risk. So let's have a look at the facts. Cotality head of research, Nick Goodall, noted that previous research in Dunedin showed a 15% price discount for flood-affected properties, but that discount typically vanished after just 18 months, and experts are questioning if this short memory will last. Banks often have more detailed flood modeling than the public, leading to an information gap during negotiations. Mortgage advisers report that insurability is becoming a major hurdle. Lenders are giving weather risk information much more prominence in loan offers, and rising premiums are putting some buyers off entirely. A recent insurance and financial services ombudsman, the IFSO, ruled highlighting major risks. Insurers are only required to fund rebuilds in the minimum legal requirements. They are not obligated to pay for future-proofing measures, such as raising floor levels or that are higher than mandatory. And this 18-month amnesia on price discounts is interesting, but I think the game's changed because of insurance. We assume that most properties are insurable. Now, insurance retreat is real. If you can't get insurance, you can't get a mortgage. And if the insurance bill's going to be massive, that might change your opinion about buying it in the first place. That IFSO case is a wake-up call. If you want extra protection when rebuilding, the cost is on you. That is why due diligence, checking the LIM, and getting an insurance quote before you buy is more critical than ever. Recent extreme weather events and new council maps showing flood risks have made people a bit overly cautious in some cases, and overly confident in others. Just remember that not all properties zoned as flood risk or flood prone by councils have actually previously been flooded. Yeah, we personally know of properties that aren't zoned that flooded completely, and others that are zoned flooding and not even a drop of water. So, um, it's really strange. Also, and potentially more importantly, not all properties that have previously been flooded are zoned as a flood risk or flood prone. You can't just rely on council maps. Do your homework. Check to see if the property has ever had an insurance claim for flooding. That is definitely going to be the teller there. Third segment for this week from, it's called the Aussie Influx: Buying for Value and Safety. Today we're looking at a trend that might surprise some of our local listeners. While we've seen a bit of a mass exodus recently of New Zealanders heading across the ditch to Australia, more Australians, including professional economists, are looking at New Zealand as a country offering better value. That's right, and why wouldn't they? Yeah. We're seeing a shift of Australian buyers are finding New Zealand to be a relative bargain at the moment compared to the prices in their major own cities. And something we talked about not that long ago was that the, you know, the average price in Sydney is 1.7 million dollars Australian for a home. So there's a good reason to be buying here. Let's have a look at some of the facts. So economist and mother of three, Dimity Pascoe, recently purchased two hectares of land in Central Otago for less than $555,000, which is lower than the median price of a one-bedroom unit in Brisbane. Pascoe noted that while Australian values have continued to climb, New Zealand's national property values were down 17.6% from their early 2022 peak, presenting a better value play. Research by www.money.co.au found that nearly a third of Queenslanders are considering a move overseas, with New Zealand being the top choice abroad. Beyond the financial aspect, buyers are citing risk profiles as a factor. Pascoe highlighted that New Zealand offers a calmer climate, far removed from the bush fire and cyclone risks affecting Queensland's insurance costs. The Trans-Tasman relationship also means property ownership rights for Australians are easier to navigate than in most other foreign markets. So it's a bit of a wake-up call, isn't it? When you have an economist like Pascoe looks at our market and sees value, it tells you how stretched some parts of Australia have become. Exactly. She described the Southeast Queensland market as irrational and likely at the top of its cycle. By buying here, she's essentially buying the dip compared to Australia's peak. And notice the insurance link again. She's literally moving her capital to New Zealand to escape the rise in insurance costs a- associated with bush fires and cyclones and flooding in the Q- in Queensland. I wonder how many of them are also trying to escape the Albanese Labor government. It's probably a pretty good Wouldn't surprise me. Yeah. From what we've heard from Australian friends of ours over there. For Kiwi sellers, this could mean that that price increases aren't too far away, you know, with more increase in market activity from Australian buyers coming into the New Zealand market. For Kiwi buyers, this could be a bit of a double-edged sword because you could be competing with those buyers who think our current prices are a bargain. It reinforces the need to have your strategy ready so that you can act when you find the right property. And don't forget, when we look at the exchange rate from the New Zealand dollar to the Australian dollar half a million dollar piece of land is really cheap for them right now. So that wraps up episode 12 of New Zealand Property Insights. We've covered everything from the $54 million cut in asking prices to the changing reality of flood risks and, of course, the Aussie influx. 📍 📍 And if this episode made you realize that you need a better plan for buying property, we're here to help. We run weekly events called How to Succeed with Property Investing. We do a deep dive into the specific strategies we use to find value in the current market and how to avoid making those mistakes that a lot of less experienced buyers often make. It's completely free and online, and you can find the link in the show notes or head to propertyapprentice.co.nz to register. Thanks for listening today. Keep learning and invest wisely. We'll see you next time​