The Golden Visa Rush, Auckland's Plan Change 120 & The Quiet South Island Boom

While some commentators are calling the current New Zealand property market slow, we are actually seeing an incredibly exciting window of opportunity. In this episode of The Week in Review, Debbie Roberts breaks down the localized wealth booms, massive zoning changes in Auckland, and why high-net-worth foreign buyers are flooding the premium market.

In this episode, we cover:

• The South Island Boom: While national property values only increased by 0.2% in March, wealth is highly localized right now. Invercargill jumped 1.7% for the month (up 7.1% year-on-year), and areas like Central Otago are hitting brand new all-time peak values.
• 6 Years Post-COVID Reality: The latest QV House Price Index shows national home values are 21.6% higher than they were in March 2020. Christchurch values have skyrocketed 55% since pre-lockdown, while Wellington is sitting slightly lower than March 2020 levels.
• ANZ's Forecast Shift: With Auckland now accounting for 37% of New Zealand's housing inventory, ANZ has revised its 2026 house price predictions. We discuss why they shifted their forecast from a 5% increase to a potential 2% fall, and why this extends the buyer's market window.
• Auckland Plan Change 120: The government has mandated a new 1.4 million homes capacity floor for Auckland, allowing the council to downzone outer suburbs. However, 15-story zoning is locked in around the City Rail Link (like Maungawhau and Kingsland), legally protecting the development potential of transit-hub land.
• The Golden Visa Rush: Since the Active Investor Plus scheme changes on March 6th, foreign buyers from the US, China, Germany, and South Korea are snapping up $5M+ properties. Some US buyers are so petrified of global instability they are specifically asking for properties with bunkers! We explain how this top-end urgency will ripple down through the market.

Resource Links:

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Transcript

Debbie: 0:05

While some commentators are quick to label the current conditions as slow or stagnant, I actually view this as an incredibly exciting window of opportunity rather than a blanket national market. We're seeing a landscape rich with localized potential in highly creative ways to build wealth. Hi everyone. Welcome along to another episode of The Week in Review. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial adviser here at Property Apprentice. In today's episode, we are going to highlight some of these brilliant, bright spots. We'll explore the quiet boom happening down in the South Island while Auckland catches its breath, and unpack how you can position yourself strategically amid a N Z's latest 2026 forecast updates to get the best value out of the market. We're also gonna look at the sudden influx of foreign golden visa buyers who are reminding us all just what a safe sought after haven, New Zealand truly is on the global stage. There's some fantastic opportunities out there right now if you know where to look and what you're looking for. So grab a cuppa get comfortable, and let's dive into how you can make the most out of these current market dynamics. First up for this week in review from Cotality on the 2nd of April, property values not feeling war effects for now. We are kicking things off this week with the latest home value index from Cotality.nationally, property values increased by 0.2% in March matching February's rise. This brings the national median value to $802,599, which remains 1.3% lower than a year ago and 17.1% below the peak in early 2022. Across the main centers values in Auckland and Tauranga remain flat. Looking at Auckland Submarkets, Manukau in the North Shore saw slight gains of 0.2% to 0.3%. While Rodney, Waitakere and Franklin dropped by 0.3% or more. Meanwhile, Wellington and Hamilton, down by 0.1%. Conversely, parts of the South Island are seeing growth. Invercargill increased by 1.7% for the month and is up 7.1% year-on-year. Invercargill, along with areas like Central Otago, Grey Ash, Burton and Westland have hit new peak property values. Cotality notes that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up fuel prices, which affects diesel supply for primary production and raising global money market interest rates, which has flowed through to mortgage rate lifts at some New Zealand banks. Also, it's likely that fuel prices are going to drive up the cost of construction as well, which could also flow through to increase prices and new builds. And then that'll flow through to existing properties as well. A rising tide lifts all ships. Cotality also noted that an earlier forecast of a hundred thousand property sales this year is starting to look like a stretch, and data shows that borrowers are increasingly shifting towards fixing their mortgages for longer terms. When we hear that the national property market only grew by 0.2% in March, in my opinion, it's so easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the entire country's essentially stagnant. But as investors relying on a national average or a national median can be misleading. For example, while Auckland flatlines we're seeing a massive quiet boom in the South island, wealth is highly localized right now. And if you're only looking at the high level headlines. You could be completely missing some of the action. It's great to see regions like Invercargill, Central Otago, and Westland completely defying the national slump to hit brand new all time peak property values. Why? Because they're anchored by a strong agricultural and farming base. It's a brilliant reminder that property doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's tied directly to local economic engines. You have to start looking at why a region produces income rather than just waiting for the whole country to rise at once. Yes, the Middle East conflict is driving up fuel prices and pushing up global interest rates, and that's making a lot of buyers hesitate. But instead of letting that uncertainty paralyze, you view it as your ultimate strategic window. When the masses hesitate competition from other buyers drops, this is your moment to negotiate and secure the property that suits your financial position on your terms and structure your mortgage in a way that will enable you to lock in interest rates while they're still below the long term average help to protect you from rising interest rates, but still leave flexibility of rates come down again sooner than expected. Second topic for this week in review from New Zealand adviser on the 1st of April. New Zealand housing market shifts from frenzy to balance in 2026. So moving on to our second topic, and this one comes from a different angle, showing the latest QV house price index reports on the market six years on from the first COVID-19 lockdown, remember those? Remember, those national home values are currently 21.6% higher than they were in March, 2020, which is only, it wasn't that far before the peak of the boom. However, value slipped 0.4% over the past year. And 0.1% in the March quarter. So what that tells you is that, you know, if you bought your property earlier than 2020, chances are you've got some decent equity in that home that you purchased or the investment property that you bought. In fact, um, when I looked at some stats recently, it looks as if, if you've owned your home for at least seven years, you've probably got enough to help fund the deposit on an investment property. Regionally at the moment, Christchurch stands out with values now at about 55% higher than pre lockdown. Auckland remains 9.6% above March 2020 levels despite recent declines, while Wellington's average values are now slightly lower than where they were in March, 2020. The Reserve Bank is forecasting house prices to be broadly flat through 2026, which leaves borrowers with less of a wealth effect buffer if other living costs rise. Additionally, QV's cost builder highlights increases in construction costs. As I mentioned earlier, elemental and trade costs rose an average of 0.4% over the month with diesel intensive work such as excavation rising more sharply. QV notes that the market's now behaving more like it did before. COVID-19 defined by caution with buyers taking longer to commit and vendors becoming more realistic on price. Further evidence that the buyer's market might be here for a bit longer than we originally thought. With plenty of opportunities, plenty of properties to choose from, and not as much competition from other buyers. It's not bad news people. Moving on to topic number three from Oneroof.co.nz on the 1st of April, which suburbs are winning in 2026, and which ones are flatlining .For our third topic, Oneroof velocity data shows that the nationwide. Average property value hasn't changed in three months, affected by high volumes of unsold stock. Auckland now accounts for 37% of New Zealand's housing inventory. Active listings in the city are 10 to 15% higher than a year ago, and nearly a third of all listed Auckland homes have been on the market for five months or longer. Over the past year, Auckland values dropped 3.3% and now sit 5% below their level five years ago with the largest annual falls in the Manukau and Waitakere districts where unsold townhouse stock is concentrated. In contrast, Southland recorded the highest regional growth at 2.8%. Queenstown Lakes saw a significant annual gains with house values climbing by $317,000 in Arrowtown and $273,000 in Lake Hayes. Wellington's also easing higher after almost two years of declines helped by a 1.3% lift in the Kapiti coast. Amid this market bloat inflation concerns in the Middle East conflict, a NZ has revised its 2026 predictions. The bank previously forecast house price growth of 5% for this year, but now expects house prices to potentially fall by 2%. Time will tell. Isn't it interesting though, when we see reports about average property values being flat, but median values showing different results, and then when we look at house price index, they tell a different story again, especially when you look at the individual areas rather than New Zealand as a whole. Remember, you don't buy the whole country. You don't buy the average. You don't buy the median. Well, you might, but you know, generally speaking, not you buy one property at a time. You need to understand what's happening in the area that you are looking to buy. And property investing's a long-term strategy, and it has a lot more to do with finance than the actual property itself. Just because you can get enough lending to purchase a property does not mean that it will automatically be a good investment. Ask anyone who was sold a new build as an investment at the peak of the last boom. There's more to property investing than one size fits all and plenty of different strategies to choose from. If you are getting value out of this podcast, please open your Apple Podcast or Spotify app right now and hit the follow button. It's the number one way to help us help more first home buyers and property investors gain access to quality content. And if you wanna learn more about investing, join me at one of our free online How to Succeed with Property Investing Events where we focus entirely on helping you to build the right strategy by increasing your knowledge. As a financial adviser and experienced investor, I'll help you to navigate the current market with confidence and make smarter decisions. We are live, online and independent. We don't sell property, so go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to register for the next free event. Topic number four this week in review from One News on the 31st of March, government waters down Auckland Housing Plan again. As Bill introduced our fourth topic looks at new legislation introduced by the government to reduce the minimum housing capacity for Auckland's Council Plan Change one 20. The new mandated floor is 1.4 million homes. This is a reduction from the 1.6 million figure announced by housing Minister Chris Bishop six weeks ago and lower than the originally proposed 2 million homes. Despite the 1.4 million baseline, Bishop stated that the actual capacity enabled is still likely to be around 1.6 million homes once mandatory upzoning rules are factored in. Auckland Council will decide which specific areas to down zone. The council's agreed. Principles include decreasing capacity, starting more than 10 kilometers from the city center, reassessing, intensification along lower ranked bus corridors, and decreasing three story mixed housing. Urban zoning in areas without good public transport. However, certain density mandates are not changing. Legislated Upzoning will remain around five key train stations benefiting from the city Rail link. This allows for at least 15 story apartment buildings around Maungawhau, Kingsland, and Morningside, and at least 10 stories for build for Baldwin Ave and Mount Albert. Building heights of at least six stories will also be allowed within 800 meters of train stations, busways and Metropolitan Centers. The legislation also allows roughly 400 developers partway through building consents under the scraped plan change 78 rules to continue with their projects. There's been so much political panic over whether Auckland's zoned for an additional 2 million homes, 1.6 million or 1.4 million. As investors, we need to tune out that sort of noise. These are theoretical ceilings, not actual building mandates. What matters is not the massive scary headline number. What matters is how this impacts your property or what you want to buy. The government has essentially handed Auckland Council the keys to down zone, the outer suburbs. Which means inner city and transit link land just retained its premium value. The most crucial takeaway from this legislation is what's not changing. The government's locking in 15 story zoning around the city rail link and high density zoning around major transit hub. This is like a massive neon sign for investors and developers showing once again that good infrastructure supports population growth, putting properties where they're most needed, and this time round, some actual thought is going into where people might actually need it. If you own property near these key transit corridors, the development potential of your land is now legally protected. For the last few years, property owners and developers in Auckland have been stuck in limbo, bouncing from the old unitary plan to the townhouse bill to plan change 78 and now to plan change 120. This new legislation finally hopefully will draw a line in the sand. Even if you don't agree with every zoning change, having some certainty around it is the greatest gift the market can receive right now. Certainty means we can finally run our numbers with greater confidence, assess the development potential, and make long-term investment and development decisions. Again, just make sure you don't build something ugly or inappropriate for the area. Like some of the developments we've seen recently that have just sat on the market for months because nobody wants to buy them or rent them. Topic number five for this weekend. Review from Oneroof.co.nz on the 30th of March. First, Golden Visa sales buyers from Germany, US South Korea, and China snap up Kiwi homes. Finally, let's look at the changes to the active Investor plus scheme that took effect on March the sixth. Since the rule change, the overseas investment office has approved four purchases of homes worth $5 million or more by foreign buyers. These buyers are from China, the US, South Korea and Germany, purchasing in Auckland, Queenstown Lakes, and Hawkes Bay. Confirmed purchases include a European inspired country estate and Havelock North Barry Coleman's, Glen Dwy Waterfront Mansion. Which had previous price expectations around $18 million and a lakeside property on Lake Hayes that was bought sight unseen with plans to demolish the existing home and build a new luxury build. Real estate agents report that inquiries from overseas have spiked, particularly from the US and Europe due to the crisis in the Middle East. Some US buyers have actually specifically asked about properties with bunkers. Agents note that these foreign buyers generally have budgets starting from around $10 million, while Chinese buyers are expected to target properties in the 5 million to $10 million range in Auckland. Agents also note that the rule changes have spurred some local buyers into action to purchase before more of these foreign buyers filter through. So my thoughts on this are, you know, this is going to affect a small percentage of New Zealand property buyers, a small sector of the market. Sometimes we get so bogged down in local things like inflation zoning, debates, and rising interest rates. That we completely lose perspective on how the rest of the world sees us. The fact that high net worth foreign buyers are utilizing these golden visas to flood into New Zealand is the ultimate reality check. I know it's a bit early to call it a flood, but yeah, no. We'll see what happens. We've got us buyers who are literally petrified of global instability and are asking about properties with bunkers for crying out loud. For international wealth, New Zealand appears to be seen as the ultimate safe haven. Nothing illustrates the sheer power of this incoming capital quite like the Lake Hayes example, we are seeing European buyers purchasing multimillion dollar properties site unseen purely for the view, with plans to completely demolish the existing home just to build luxury new builds. This level of capital plays an entirely different set of rules, completely detached from many local economic struggles. So what does this mean for Kiwis? It means the window of low competition at the top end of the market could be closing fast. The sudden influx of foreign capital is already creating a massive sense of urgency for local high net worth buyers. So if you are in that position and you've been sitting on the fence waiting to upgrade to that $5 million plus bracket, you could now be directly competing with some international buyers who view our real estate as an absolute bargain. And for those of you who are not yet in the $5 million plus bracket, that urgency at the top will eventually ripple down through to the rest of the market. So what's the verdict for the week? When we look at the data from today's episode, from the quiet boom happening down in the south island, to the Confidence provided by Auckland's protected infrastructure zoning, and the powerful reminder that New Zealand's premium value is on the global stage, one thing is incredibly clear. Wealth belongs to those who look beyond the blanket national averages or mediums, and those who are prepared to take strategic action. If you haven't already been to one, I'd love to invite you to attend one of our free online master classes called How to Succeed With Property Investing. During this live online session, i'll answer as many questions as I can and the time permitted, and I'll help you cut through some of the jargon. We'll look at how to build lasting wealth without risking everything. We're a New Zealand family-owned and operated business, and because we don't sell property, you can trust that our financial advice and coaching support comes without the usual conflict of interest that's common in this industry. Go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to secure your free spot for our next event today. And if you're getting value out of this podcast, please open your Apple Podcast or Spotify app right now and hit that follow button. It helps spread the word too. If you've got friends that you think might get benefit out of listening to this, let them know. Stay focused, stay educated, keep learning, and tune into the next episode. See you again soon.