NZ Housing Update: Hidden Mortgage Payouts, Purchasing Power, & ANZ's 2026 Forecast

Are we really in a flat NZ property market, or are you missing out on hidden bank payouts? In this episode of the Week in Review, Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice unpacks a fascinating shift in how wealth, property, and debt are managed in New Zealand.

If you are feeling the pinch, Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway explains why: it is fundamentally an issue of purchasing power. Although inflation has slowed, overall prices have surged by approximately 26% since 2020. Debbie explains why monetary policy won't save us, why New Zealand remains structurally expensive, and how successful investors are actively pivoting to adding value instead of waiting for lazy capital gains.

In this episode, we also cover: 

🚨 Bank "Loyalty Payouts": How banks are actively offering cash retention payments of 0.25% to 0.4% to existing home loan customers just to stop them from refinancing. 

📉 The "Flat Market" Myth: Why the national "sideways" trend is an illusion. We dive into Cotality data revealing that 56% of tracked suburbs actually recorded flat or rising house values. 

🔮 Forecast Reversal: Why ANZ economists went from predicting a 5% increase to a 2% fall in house prices for 2026 amid the conflict in the Middle East. 

👴 The Retirement Gap: With mandatory KiwiSaver contributions rising to 3.5% from the 1st of April, Sharesies data shows four in ten Kiwis could still fall short of a basic, "no-frills" retirement.

📢 FREE MASTERCLASS: How to Succeed with Property Investing Times of broader uncertainty often create the best local opportunities. Join our free online masterclass to learn how to spot the right opportunities, protect your cash flow from inflation, and build wealth safely step-by-step. We are a Kiwi-owned and operated business. Because we don't sell property, our financial advice and coaching support is completely unbiased. 

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Transcript

 Hey everyone. Welcome along to another episode of the Week in Review. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial adviser here at Property Apprentice. If you take a look at the mainstream headlines right now, it's pretty easy to feel like the economy's simply stuck in a holding pattern. But if we peel back the layers of the data we received this week, there's a much more fascinating story playing out.

We're actually witnessing a subtle paradigm shift in how wealth. Property and debt are being managed in New Zealand. In today's episode, we're going to explore a major psychological reality check from the Reserve Bank regarding why your wallet still feels squeezed and expose the quiet behind the scenes loyalty payouts.

Some banks are using to stop you from refinancing. We'll also investigate the profound differences in property values happening at the suburb level. Unpack why top economists have suddenly reversed their house price forecast for the year. And finally look at the upcoming hikes to your KiwiSaver contributions and why that still might not be enough for a comfortable retirement.

There are some interesting trends in the market right now, and today's episode is designed to give you the inside edge.

  



 So let's decode what the numbers are really telling us. First up from  📍 New Zealand adviser on the 25th of March, RBNZ. Economist warns purchasing power, not prices is the key squeeze. Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway stated that the current cost of living squeeze is fundamentally an issue of purchasing power.

What incomes can actually buy, rather than just the rate of inflation. Although inflation has slowed, overall, prices have surged by approximately 26% since 2020. Analysis from Westpac and ASB indicate that escalating costs for fuel, food and power could push inflation back above target creating a risk that mortgage rates will remain higher for a longer duration.

New Zealand's price levels exceed the OECD average with construction and housing relating services ranking among the most expensive globally. Wages have grown by roughly 32% since the start of the pandemic, keeping real wages slightly above pre COVID levels. Those who switched jobs were the most likely to secure pay increases.

Conway emphasized that while the Reserve bank can stabilize prices through monetary policy, it can't independently make New Zealand more affordable. Long-term relief, higher real wages and improved living standards rely entirely on productivity growth, which allows the economy to expand without triggering further price hikes.

Here's my thoughts on the subject. Have you ever looked at your income and realized you're earning more than you were in 2020, but you still feel like you're constantly sliding backwards? Paul Conway's insights this week finally put a name to that invisible friction. While our wages have technically grown by 32%, the structural cost of living in New Zealand,

especially with construction and housing is fundamentally draining our purchasing power. We have to stop looking at our gross income and start analyzing what our money can actually buy. There was a highly sobering truth in Conway speech: the Reserve Bank can't save us. We have to let go of the fantasy that tweaking the official cash rate will miraculously make New Zealand an affordable place to live.

Realizing that monetary policy is not a magic wand is actually incredibly empowering because it means the solution is entirely up to us. Conway noted that the only long-term fix for the economy is productivity. As investors, we've gotta adopt the same attitude for our portfolios. Lazy capital gains are dormant at the moment.

You've gotta look at your assets and ask, how can I increase value here? Can I optimize my rental return? If you can proactively maintain your property to prevent future repair bills in a high cost environment, wealth belongs to those who actively manage things like this. 

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Second topic for this week. In review from the  📍 New Zealand Herald on the 25th of March, New Zealand banks are paying customers to stay in response to fierce competition in the mortgage market.

Banks are increasingly offering retention payments to keep existing home loan customers from switching to other lenders. The surge in cashback incentives escalated late last year when ANZ introduced a 1.5% cashback for new borrowers, prompting competitors to match the offer and extend similar incentives to their current clients.

While new or refinancing borrowers can currently secure cashback offers between 0.9% and 1% of their loan amount. Existing customers are typically offered lower retention payments, usually ranging from 0.25% to 0.4%. Mortgage advisers note that despite the lower percentage, many borrowers are choosing the retention payment.

Once legal fees and the general hassle of changing banks is deducted from a refinancing cashback, the net benefit often ends up being about the same as simply taking the retention offer to stay put. And securing these payments isn't guaranteed. advisers highlight the eligibility often depends on having more than 20% equity,

past cashback history and also loan timing. Banks are highly unlikely to offer retention cash to customers who are still locked into a fixed term rate as the break fees make switching lenders financially unviable a lot of the time anyway. Major lenders, including ANZ and Westpac have openly acknowledged that they're utilizing these cash contributions as a direct strategy to retain their current customer base in a highly contested market.

My advice to you is if you are thinking about refinancing to get some cash back deals, talk to your mortgage adviser and work out whether it is the right step for you or not. 

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Third topic for this, we can review from  📍 RNZ on the 25th of March, the suburbs where values rose 6% in three months. For our third topic, we are looking at the latest data from Cotality which proves the concept that a national property market is a myth.

While the high level data suggests that the housing market is trending sideways, the suburb level data is highly mixed and quite defiant. In the three months to March, 56% of tracked suburbs actually recorded flat or rising standalone house values. Up from 44% in the previous quarter. For example, Karitane in Dunedin and Blackball in the Gray district saw values jumped by 6% while Little Whanganui and Buller dropped by 6%.

Auckland's Herne Bay remains the most expensive suburb with a median standalone value of $2.99 million contrasting sharply with areas like Patea or Clinton, where medians are below $300,000. Cotality notes that global conflict will likely keep buyers cautious in the short term. So my thoughts on this, when we read headlines declaring that the national property market's trending sideways, our brains naturally use that as an excuse to pause.

It feels psychologically safe to do nothing when the market is quite quiet or when there's uncertainty around. But the Cotality data reveals quite a different reality on the ground. With 56% of suburbs now showing flat or rising values and places like Karitane jumping 6%, while Little Whanganui drops by 6%, we are reminded that that national market is a myth.

It's completely human to feel hesitant right now, especially with global conflicts, creating a heavy blanket of caution over the economy.

As educated investors, we must redefine what "caution" means. "Caution" should mean conducting deeper, more rigorous due diligence. It should not mean freezing entirely. It should mean focusing on the fundamentals of investing, not just on lazy capital growth that you've got no control over. The current property market gives us a rare, stable window of opportunity.

It's the perfect time to negotiate some really good deals and secure a solid investment property while there's less buyers to compete with, you just need to know what you're looking for and where you are most likely to find it.   📍  📍  📍  📍 If you are getting value out of this podcast, please open your Apple Podcast or Spotify app right now and hit the follow button.

It's the number one way to help us to help more first time buyers and property investors gain access to quality content.   📍  📍 And if you wanna learn more about investing, join me at one of our free online events called How to Succeed With Property Investing, where we focus entirely on helping you to build the right strategy and mindset.

As a financial adviser and experienced investor, I'll show you how to navigate the current market with confidence and help you to make the best decision for your individual situation. We are live, online and independent. We don't sell property. Go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to secure your free spot at one of our next events.

Fourth topic for this Week in Review from  📍 1News on the 26th of March. ANZ says that the Middle East conflict will mean house prices will fall. Our fourth topic addresses how global shocks are directly impacting local lending. ANZ economists have officially reversed their property forecast for the year, originally predicting a 5% increase, which they then downgraded to a 2% increase,

they're now forecasting that house prices could actually fall by 2% in 2026. The catalyst for this change, the conflict in the Middle East. Soaring global oil prices and rising wholesale mortgage rates are knocking the wind out of consumer confidence, which has just started, which had just started returning to normal levels.

Even without the Reserve Bank hiking, the official cash rate, the actual interest rates charged to borrowers have crept up in recent weeks. ANZ notes that this lack of momentum shifts the market heavily in favor of buyers.

While a quick resolution to the conflict could stabilize things, the current risk is that mortgage rates could rise further because rates have already lifted from their lows, aNZ economists suggest that there's less value in fixing for long periods, pointing to the two year fixed rate as the current sweet spot for a mix of value and certainty.

Obviously this depends on your individual position, so talk to your mortgage adviser about this. My thoughts on the turnaround in ANZ's predictions is that it's all guesswork at this point. If the Iran war ends sooner rather than later, it's likely that the economy will get back to the recovery that we were already starting to see before it started.

And so too with the recovery in the property market. Forecasts are after all just predictions. And they can change with the wind depending on the latest information. Stick to the fundamentals of long-term investing and forget about the noise.

Zig when others are zagging and grab the opportunities that are currently available that most people are overlooking so that you can reap the rewards over the long term. 

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Topic number five for this  📍 Week in Review from Stuff on the 26th of March. Have your say, we'll hire KiwiSaver contributions fix our retirement gap?

It's time to talk about your long-term future under the national LED government's plan, mandatory KiwiSaver contributions are on the increase. Both employer and employee contributions increased to 3.5% from the 1st of April and will hit 4% by 2028 with a long-term trajectory, potentially reaching 12% by 2032, but is forced saving the ultimate fix?

Analysis from the wealth app Sharesies suggests a troubling reality gap. Their data indicates that even with these increases, about four out of every 10 New Zealanders could still fall short of affording a basic "no-frills" retirement based on Massey University's guidelines. This sparks a massive debate. While lifting contributions as a practical way to boost overall savings,

doing so during a tight cost of living squeeze adds intense pressure to household budgets today. So does New Zealand need to completely overhaul its retirement saving framework rather than just pulling more money from our current paychecks? Let's have a look. My thoughts on this are that there a shocking reality is that four in 10 Kiwis are still tracking to fall short of an even a no frills retirement.

Finding that extra cash to lock away for a retirement that's decades away can feel almost impossible if you're struggling with a cost of living squeeze right now. But if you're not living from paycheck-to-paycheck, consider this your wake up call. We can't rely on any government to fund retirement.

It's time to take control of your own financial future. So what's the verdict for this week? When you closely look at the data: it's clear that the days of relying on a booming property market or government intervention to fund your retirement are behind us. The real advantage now belongs to the educated investor.

It belongs to those who understand purchasing power and who treat their investing decisions as if they're running a business. If you're a property investor, you already are running a business, even if you're an employee for someone else.  If you haven't already been to one, I'd love to invite you to one of our free online master classes called   📍  📍  📍 How to Succeed with Property Investing. During this live online session,

i'll help you cut through the economic jargon. We'll look at how to build lasting wealth step-by-step without risking everything. We are a Kiwi owned and operated business, so you can trust that our financial advice and coaching support is unbiased. Because we don't sell property, we don't have that usual conflict of interest.

Head on over to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to secure your free spot at one of these events today.  And if you're already a client, make sure you reach out to your coach. If you've got questions about your next steps, stay focused, get educated, increase your knowledge, and I'll see you next week. Thanks for listening.