Global Shocks, Auckland's 5-Year Sales High & KiwiSaver Reforms (Week in Review)

Is a flat property market your best window of opportunity? In this episode of The Week in Review, Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice unpacks a fascinating mix of global tension and local opportunity. While Middle East conflicts drive volatility in the share market, the New Zealand property market is presenting one of the best buyer's markets in recent history.

We dive into why Auckland just recorded its busiest February for sales in five years, driven by a 9.6% drop in median prices. We also cover Cotality's latest regional data, Tony Alexander's insights on why speculative investors have thrown in the towel, and a radical new proposal on KiwiSaver.

Key Topics Covered:

• Global Market Volatility: Why you shouldn't panic about your KiwiSaver balance, and how property acts as a tangible hedge against inflation.
• Cotality Regional Update: Auckland flattens out, Wellington City rises, and Invercargill hits a new peak.
• Auckland Sales Surge: How a drop in prices to $904,000 is drawing buyers back into a market with 15-year-high stock levels.
• The End of FOMO: Why first-home buyers are dominating the nearly 36,000 homes currently for sale.
• KiwiSaver 2.0: Reviewing the proposal to lock the withdrawal age at 65 and ramp up employer contributions to 12%.

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#NZProperty #KiwiSaver #FirstHomeBuyerNZ #Auckland

Transcript

 This week we are looking at a fascinating mix of global tension and local opportunity. On the international stage, we're seeing escalating conflict in the Middle East that threatens to shake up the stock market and push oil prices higher. But right here at home, the property market is telling a very different story.

 Kia Ora everyone. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial adviser here at Property Apprentice. Welcome along to another episode of the Week in Review. We've got fresh data showing Auckland just had its busiest February for sales in five years. Clear evidence that speculative investors are leaving the market to first time buyers, and a radical new proposal that could change the future of KiwiSaver forever.

There's a lot to think about this week, so let's cut through it and get stuck into the data. First topic for this week from the  📍 New Zealand Herald on the 2nd of March, Iran attack sparks warning for KiwiSaver, fuel and inflation. Topic number two,  📍 from Cotality on the 5th of March, February delivers the strongest value lift in four months.

Topic number three, from  📍 New Zealand Adviser on the 4th of March, Auckland house prices slide as sales hit five year high. Fourth topic from  📍 Oneroof on the 4th of March from Tony Alexander: who's calling the shots when there are nearly 36,000 homes for sale. Topic number five, from  📍 RNZ on the 5th of March:

call for politicians to confirm KiwiSaver members have their money at 65. Our first topic looks at the global stage. Investors are being warned to expect significant market volatility following recent attacks in the Middle East, and when I'm talking about, market volatility, that's referring to the share market, not the property market

in New Zealand. Experts like Infometrics chief Executive Brad Olsen predict a short term sea of red in across global markets, including your KiwiSaver balances as uncertainty drives investors towards safe havens like gold and the US dollar. The primary concern for our local economy is fuel prices with strikes impacting parts of Bahrain and Kuwait and insurance rates soaring for ships

navigating the Strait of Hormuz .traders warn oil could potentially hit a hundred dollars US. Per barrel. For New Zealand, a sustained spike in oil prices could heavily impact tradable inflation. Higher fuel costs make transporting goods more expensive, which could put pre upward pressure on food prices, right when the Reserve Bank was expecting overall inflation to soften.

So what do you do? The overwhelming consensus from financial experts is to avoid panic. If your investments in KiwiSaver are in funds that match your timeline and risk profile, it's best to ignore the short-term noise. In fact, for long-term investors, a market downturn could actually present a fantastic buying opportunity.

As Brad Olsen said, just don't look at your KiwiSaver balance this week. It's completely natural. This is, these are my thoughts. It's completely natural to feel anxious when your newsfeeds dominated by war and stock market drops. However, history is our best teacher here. Whether it was the 1990 Gulf War, the 9/11 attacks, or the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, global markets consistently demonstrate an initial panic followed by a strong recovery, often within a matter of months.

Geopolitical shocks rarely changed the long-term trajectory of economic growth. The global volatility is exactly why we are big fans of investing in property. While the stock market can wipe out 5% of its value in a single afternoon based on an overseas headline, property is a physical, tangible asset.

Having said that, if you think back to when the last time we saw a significant drop in values in the share market, a lot of people panicked and switched their KiwiSaver to a lower risk fund, but they missed out on the opportunity of buying more shares for the same amount of money if they'd stayed where they were because the stock market recovered really quickly.

So my advice is, if you're still many years away, or several years away from retiring, certainly no need to look at changing your KiwiSaver Fund at the moment. if you are imminent, as far as buying a home and you are worried about your KiwiSaver balance, get in touch with your KiwiSaver adviser and talk through some different options there.

Okay. Now, uh, coming back to property being a physical, tangible asset, the value of a house in Auckland or Southland doesn't swing wildly overnight just because of tensions over in the Middle East. People still need a place to live, and our local housing demand remains robust regardless of international policies.

Also, we do tend to see that in times of uncertainty, people do gravitate towards things like gold, silver, and property. If oil prices do spike and cause a ripple effect of higher inflation here in New Zealand, property remains one of the safest places to park your wealth. We might see an OCR increase sooner rather than later.

It'll all depend on how long this conflict lasts. Historically, real estate naturally keeps pace with inflation, with a few exceptions to that, depending on supply and demand. But as the cost of living and building materials rise, property values and rental incomes typically rise right alongside them. So don't switch your KiwiSaver or managed funds out of fear 'cause that locks in any temporary losses.

Just leave them where they are and let the market recover. When speculative investors get spooked by global events, they tend to sit on their hands and wait. This means less competition for you. So treat any market dip or general uncertainty as a prime buying opportunity to negotiate a better deal on a property.

Focus on cash flow, not on the news. Don't let overseas volatility distract you from your local strategy. When you are purchasing a property, you should always be crunching the numbers on higher interest rates, especially when interest rates are below the long-term average. So talk to your mortgage adviser if you're looking at buying property and get some opinions around that.

If you're a Property Apprentice client, talk to your coach before you panic. 

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Topic number two, from Cotality on the 5th of March, February delivers strongest value lift in four months. Bringing things back closer to home. Our second topic looks at regional property trends. According to Kelvin Davidson at Corelogic, Tāmaki Makaurau  Auckland was a bit softer than other parts of the country in February, but all of its sub-markets managed to remain flat or tick slightly higher.

With housing affordability significantly improved and listing numbers falling, a modest lift in Auckland property values over the medium term wouldn't be a surprise. Down in Wellington, the market remains patchy, still feeling the weight of lingering economic and election year political uncertainty.

However, Wellington City itself recorded a solid 0.8% rise in values in February. Outside the main centers, the property market's largely strengthening. We saw notable lifts in Gisborne, Whanganui and especially in the Waihōpai Invercargill, which has actually hit a new property value peak alongside areas like Ashburton and Timaru.

Looking ahead for the rest of 2026, Davidson suggests a balanced view of only modest value growth. While borrowers are feeling slightly buoyed by recent cuts to longer-term mortgage rates, strict debt-to-income restrictions, and a high supply of housing stock will continue to act as firm guardrails against a runaway price growth.

Okay, so my thoughts on this are that we have seen some news recently which has indicated that the number of buyers entering the market is more than the number of new listings coming on board. So these more sales are happening, uh, which means that the current housing stock is going to be reducing over time if this continues, and I see no reason why it wouldn't continue.

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Topic number three, from New Zealand Adviser On the 4th of March. Auckland house prices slide as sales hit a five year-high. Speaking of Auckland, our third topic dives into some surprising sales data. While the national housing market stumbled into 2026, Auckland saw a sharp lift in activity. Barefoot and Thompson just reported its busiest February for sales in five years, which is gonna be great news for Aucklanders who've got their properties on the market.

785 homes sold. So what's driving this surge? A significant drop in prices is enticing previously priced out buyers back into the market, especially with bank lending criteria, still being very friendly at the moment. The median sales price fell 9.6% from January to $904,000. These are some of the lowest monthly figures seen in Auckland since the market peaked in 2022.

So, you know, this is good news for people who've owned their property for a long time and are now looking at that downsizing or, or upsizing. Um, not quite so good news for people who've bought in the last few years and have had a drop in value because obviously they could be selling at a loss, with the current market values.

As Barfoot and Thompson's, Peter Thompson notes, this perfectly illustrates the structural change that the reserve bank's been talking about. Housing supply is starting to meet housing demand. Stock levels in Auckland are building rapidly, giving buyers more options than they've had in 15 years. But as I mentioned before, this high volume of choice and the increased number of sales isn't yet putting upward pressure on prices.

So we've still got a really good opportunity for buyers. How long, how much longer that's gonna continue is anybody's guess, especially if we get people coming back to New Zealand from overseas with the global uncertainty. You know, if we've got more people coming back into the country that are gonna need housing, that's gonna put increased pressure on the property market as well.

And remember, it is all about supply and demand. When demand increases and supply remains flat, or increasing at a slower rate than demand, that's when House prices will start to increase again. 📍  📍  📍  📍  📍 If you're getting value out of this podcast, make sure that you open your Apple Podcast or Spotify app or wherever you listen and hit the follow button.

It's the number one way to help us to help more first time buyers and property investors gain access to quality content. It'll also make sure you're not gonna miss any episodes, 'cause we are doing more podcasts now. Uh, if you wanna watch the videos, you can also watch them in the YouTube channel. If you'd like to learn more about invest.

 📍  📍 Join me at one of our free events called How to Succeed with Property Investing, where we focus entirely on helping you to understand which strategy might be best for you as a financial adviser and experienced investor, i'll show you how to navigate the current market with confidence and make smarter decisions.

We are live, online and independent, which means that we don't sell property. No conflict of interest in properties that you're purchasing. Go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to lock in your free spot to attend one of those free events if you haven't already. Topic number four from Oneroof on the 4th of March.

Tony Alexander: who's calling the shots when there are nearly 36,000 homes for sale. Our fourth topic confirms exactly who's taking advantage of those lower prices, and that's first home buyers. According to independent economist Tony Alexander, young buyers have been the primary drivers of the residential property market since early 2023, and they're expected to remain the dominant influence for the rest of this cycle.

The era of panicked, FOMO driven investors banking on massive capital gains appears to be officially over, which is not a bad thing. Just saying, and I'll talk more about that at the end of the summary. Alexander's latest Real Estate Agent Survey reveals that a net 23% of agents are now seeing fewer people looking to purchase investment properties. With mortgage rates remaining sticky,

and further rises potentially expected. Later this year, speculative investors have essentially thrown in the towel. The exit of these speculative investors is fantastic news for first home buyers with significantly less competition, young buyers now have a near record, 36,000 properties on the market to choose from nationwide, creating a much clearer path to home ownership without the intense bidding wars of the past.

My thoughts on this are anyone who is competing with first time buyers on price does not know what they're doing. Experienced property investors negotiate like the thunder. If anything, we drive prices down, not up. And this is the market where you've got significant opportunities to negotiate good purchase prices and high rental returns.

So don't waste it by competing young buyers for first times. Okay. Um, speculators versus long-term investors. Man, that's a podcast all on its own. So most property investors own the properties for at least 10 years. Those are the statistics. So most property investors don't buy it with the intention of selling it in the short-term.

If you buy a property with the intention of selling it, that's what's called flipping properties, and that triggers GST and Tax on Profit. So I think it's important to make that clear distinction between long-term investors and speculators. Big difference. Huge. 

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Okay. Topic number five, from the RNZ on the 5th of March.

Call for politicians to confirm KiwiSaver members can have their money at 65. So this final topic is a massive proposal for the future of KiwiSaver. Former Mercury Chief Executive Fraser Whineray  I'm not sure if that's how he pronounces his name, but let's roll with it. Has released a KiwiSaver 2.0 policy summary.

Calling on politicians to explicitly guarantee that New Zealanders can access their KiwiSaver funds at the age of 65, regardless of what happens to the New Zealand superannuation eligibility age. He argues that KiwiSaver is personal money and people need certainty for their financial planning, but that's not all,

a major pivot in his proposal is redirecting support to children. FINRA suggests that the IRD should automatically open a Kiwi saver account for every child at birth. Seated with a $5,000 government contribution. If a family tops that up with just $2 a week, the child could have up to $25,000 in their account by the time they reach the age of 18. To build long-term wealth,

the plan also suggests ramping up compulsory employer contributions to 12% over a 20 year transition period while making employee contributions strictly voluntary. And finally the reform would close the OE loophole, stopping people from draining their retirement funds just because they move overseas for a year.

It's a bold plan, and he's demanding all political parties give a straight yes or no answer to it. This week my thoughts. I mean, for crying out loud, that's quite savage. Um, yeah, I think KiwiSaver is an important, it plays an important role for retirement. Most New Zealanders won't be able to afford to retire until they qualify for the superannuation.

So if they increase, if they increase the eligibility age for superannuation, my thoughts are, that you would be better off to leave your Kiwi saver there until you are ready to retire. If you wanna retire earlier than potentially the age of 72 or 73, you need to be investing outside of KiwiSaver and property has got the benefit of leverage, which increases your, uh, increases your investment fund a lot faster than if you were investing in managed funds, for example.

So, you know, there are options available for everyone and, um, this is something that we help our clients with as part of the financial planning that we do for all of our clients at Property Apprentice. There's not a one-size-fits all, but I think, um. My opinion would be lock up KiwiSaver until eligibility for superannuation.

'cause that just makes sense. Otherwise, people might retire before they qualify for superannuation, drain their KiwiSaver balance completely, run outta money before they reach retirement age and then be in worse financial position than potentially if they carried on working. Also my thoughts about the, um, rapidly ramping up employer contributions to 12% while making employee contributions strictly voluntary.

Uh, like that concerns me a little bit on behalf of employers because employers nationwide a lot of them are really struggling at the moment. This has been a pretty brutal recession, so you know, a lot of them are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. So I think increasing the KiwiSaver contributions while making employee contributions strictly voluntary,

seems a little bit one sided. You know, we need to be looking after everyone and, not a lot of employees are in really strong financial positions at the moment because the recession hits everyone. Okay, so verdict for this week. When you hear news about global conflict, oil price spikes, and volatile stock markets, it's completely natural to feel anxious about your financial future.

But as we saw in today's local data. Times of broader uncertainty often create the best local opportunities. It's still a buyer's market people and the clues in the name. With speculative investors stepping back and housing supply at a 15 year-high, we are seeing one of the best buyer's markets in recent history.

Prices are realistic and motivated buyers are finally getting their foot in the door without the stress of FOMO Fear of missing out. 📍  📍 You don't have to navigate these geopolitical issues in local market shifts alone. If you'd like to learn more about how to block out the noise and build a residual financial financial plan, I'd love to invite you to attend one of our free online master classes called How to Succeed With Property Investing.

During this live session, we cut through intimidating jargon. I'll walk you through how to spot the right opportunities, how to protect your cash flow from inflation, and how to build wealth safely step-by-step. We're a hundred percent independent, Kiwi owned and operated business, and we don't sell property.

So you can trust that our advice is completely unbiased and focused entirely on what's best for you. Obviously, we can't give independent, you know, individual financial advice in a free online session that's got multiple people in it. So that is something that we do strictly for our clients. But if you haven't been to one of our free events, go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz and register for one of those today.

 if you're already a client, make sure that you talk to your coach if you've got any questions, because don't forget, we do offer that lifetime coaching support with no ongoing charges. If you wanna review your training as a property apprentice client, you can review the online training classes, live online classes once a week, as many times as you want to, with no extra charge.

Talk to your coach. If you've got any questions, stay focused on your long term goals. Ignore the short term noise and I'll see you next week. Thanks for listening. 

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