Fixed Rates Surge, Resale Profits Return & Foreign Buyer Rules (Week in Review)

The market is shifting gears—are you keeping up?

In this week's Week in Review, Debbie Roberts unpacks the signals that matter most to your wallet. We are seeing a stabilizing market with resale profits ticking up, but a surprise surge in borrowers locking in 2-year fixed rates suggests the "floating rate" trend is over.

Key Topics Covered:

• Resale Turnaround: 88% of sellers made a profit in Q4—has the market hit the bottom?
• Mortgage Trends: Why new lending hit record highs in December and why everyone is fixing for 2 years.
• Golden Visas: The foreign buyer ban softens on March 6th. We explain the strict $5m+ rules.
• Jobs & Inflation: Unemployment is up, but wage growth is down. What this means for the OCR.
• Solar Equity: Why retirees and renters are missing out on the solar boom.

📢 FREE EVENT: Navigating a stabilising market requires a different strategy. Join our free online masterclass to learn how to structure your portfolio for 2026. 👉 Register here: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz

Book a free, no-obligation chat with Paul: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz/free-strategy-call/

Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro: Market Shifting Gears 0:35 - Resale Profits Stabilise 2:10 - The Surge to 2-Year Fixed Rates 4:05 - Foreign Buyer "Golden Visa" Rules 7:15 - Labor Market & RBNZ Update 9:00 - Solar Power Funding Gaps 11:20 - Final Thoughts & Free Event

Buzzsprout Tags: #NZProperty #MortgageRates #RealEstateNews #ForeignBuyers #SolarEnergy #EconomicUpdate #DebbieRoberts #Podcast

Transcript

 

Hi everyone. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial Adviser at Property Apprentice. Welcome back to the Week in Review. This week we are looking at the signals that matter most to your wallet. From resale profit stabilizing to a surge in borrowers locking in fixed rates, the market is shifting gears. We also have a major update on the foreign buyer ban, mixed signals from the labor market, and a look at why solar power is booming, but leaving some Kiwis behind.

So let's get into it. Our topics for this week. 

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Topic number one, from the  📍 New Zealand Herald on the 12th of February. Property owners cashing in on resale turnaround. Topic number two, from  📍 Good Returns  on the 11th of Feb. Big move back to two year fixed interest rates. Topic number three, from  📍 Oneroof on the seventh of Feb.

Explainer foreigners will be able to buy New Zealand homes from March 6th. What happens Next? Topic number four, from  📍 New Zealand Adviser on the 9th of February. Soft jobs, cooler wages by RBNZ More time on rates. Topic number five from  📍 RNZ on the 10th of February. Households jumping on solar power, but what if you don't have a home loan?

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First up this week in review from the New Zealand Herald on the 12th of February, property owners cashing in on resale turnaround. Cotality, New Zealand's latest pain and gain report indicates that the decline in resale profits has arrested with an 88.1% of residential property selling for more than their purchase price in the December quarter.

It's a slight tick up from the previous quarter. The national median resale gain sat at $298,000. While this is down from the late 2021 peak of $440,000, it remains historically high. Cotality chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson suggests that the market has entered a trough. Describing the recent trend is a gradual downwards drift rather than a slump

with conditions now broadly holding steady. So key trends, standalone houses continue to outperform apartments which remain more susceptible to resale losses. Property owners are holding onto assets for a median of 10.1 years, the longest period on record. Davidson attributes this to owners waiting out the soft market to maximize capital growth.

Davidson expects lower mortgage rates to support demand, but cautions that the market is entering a period of stability rather than a sharp rebound. 

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Topic number two, from Good Returns. On the 11th of February, big move back to two year fixed interest rates. According to RBNZ data reported by Good Returns,

december saw a significant shift in borrower behavior with two year fixed interest rates surging back into popularity among new mortgage holders. After months of favoring floating rates and anticipation of further official cash rate cuts, owner-occupier pivoted strongly towards stability. The share of new lending on two-year fixed terms jumped to 23.2% in December, up from just 10.6% in November.

The primary driver for this switch was a change in market signals regarding the OCR. While the Reserve Bank cut the rate to 2.25%, indications that the easing cycle had likely bottomed out, caused wholesale rates and subsequently mortgage rates to rise. This prompted borrowers to lock in rates rather than gamble on further drops.

Additionally, aggressive competition played a role. Major banks offered 1.5% cash back, sparking a huge flurry of activity as borrowers switched lenders to secure better deals. This resulted in a record breaking month for new lending, which totaled $13.1 billion in December, surpassing the previous pandemic era high of $9.2 billion set in July, 2021.

Investors followed a similar trend with new investor lending rising to $3.6 billion. Floating rate usage among investors dropped sharply down 30.2% while two year fixed terms increased to a 20.5% share. 

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Topic number three, from Oneroof on the 7th of February, an explainer: foreigners will be able to buy New Zealand homes from March 6th.

What happens next? From March 6th, the government's amendments to the Overseas Investment Act will come into effect. Granting Active Investor Plus or AIP visa holders, the right to purchase residential property in New Zealand. While this is not a full reversal of the 2018 foreign ban, it opens a specific door for wealthy investors.

Holders of the so-called golden visa will be permitted to buy or build one residential property valued at $5 million or more. Who's applying? Since the Visa became available in April, over 1500 foreigners have applied with the majority hailing from the US and China. To qualify investors must not only meet strict character and health requirements, but also demonstrate they have at least $5 million in liquid funds ready to transfer within six months.

Key conditions for purchasing: investors are restricted to owning just one residential property under these rules. If they wish to move, they must sell their existing home first. Visa holders must spend at least 21 days in New Zealand over a three year period for $5 million investors. Restrictions remain for sensitive land such as properties exceeding five hectares, or those adjoining the foreshore, or on islands like Waiheke, which require additional approval. Once the visa is secured,

the overseas investment office, the OIO generally aims to decide on property consent applications within five working days. Treasury analysis predicts the impact on house prices will be minimal as less than 1% of New Zealand's housing stock meets the $5 million threshold. Any price uplift is expected to be geographically concentrated in luxury pockets like Remuera in Auckland and the Queenstown Lakes.

  📍  📍  📍 If you'd like to learn more about investing in property or the New Zealand property market, join me at one of our free events called How to Succeed With Property Investing. These events are where we focus entirely on helping you to learn more about property investment to reduce the risk of making a mistake.

As a financial adviser and an experienced investor, I'll show you how to navigate the current market with confidence and make the right decision. We are live, online and independent. We don't sell property, so go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to secure your free spot. If   📍  📍 you've already joined one of our free events and ready to join our lifetime coaching program, you can also book a no obligation meeting with my husband Paul Roberts.

Via the website if you've got any further questions before you fill out your application form.  

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Topic number four, from New Zealand Adviser on the 9th of February, soft jobs, cooler wages buy the Reserve Bank of New Zealand more time on rates. New Zealand's latest labor market figuresare sending a mixed, but broadly reassuring signal.

While the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4%, economists note that this is due largely due to a rise in workplace participation, more people looking for work rather than a collapse in demand. In fact, the economy added 15,000 jobs to end of 2025. Crucially for interest rate expectations, wage inflation is easing.

Private sector labor cost growth has slowed to 2% annually and it's a four year low. This suggests that there's still slack in the market, which reduces the immediate pressure on the Reserve Bank to hike rates to fight inflation. Westpac forecasts that the reserve bank will remain on hold with the first official cash rate height, not expected till December, 2026.

Kiwi Bank agrees there's no rush for the RBNZ to move, noting significant spare capacity in the Kiwi economy. ASB warns that while domestic inflation's cooling aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the RBA are pushing up wholesale funding costs, which is flowing through to New Zealand fixed mortgage trades.

The consensus is higher for longer while the labor market is stabilizing with green shoots of recovery. Wholesale pressures from Australia mean cheaper. Money isn't on the horizon just yet. Advisers are being urged to stress test clients at slightly higher rates. Topic number five, from RNZ on the 10th of February.

Households jumping on solar power, but what if you don't have a home loan? Thousands of New Zealand homeowners are leveraging bank lending to install solar power systems. But advocates warn that those without mortgages are being left out of the energy transition. Major banks have seen significant uptake in low to no interest.

Sustainability loans, a NZ loan has lent over $850 million. To 21,000 households while ASB reports $327 million in their  "Better Homes" top-ups. Mike Casey, CEO of rewiring. Our TRR notes that a typical system costs between $9,000 and $15,000 with a payback period of roughly seven to nine years. He argues that while taking on debt can be uncomfortable, continuing to pay energy landlords indefinitely is a form of debt in itself.

Currently New Zealand lags significantly behind Australia with only three to 4% rooftop solar coverage compared to Australia's 40%. A major barrier is that low interest bank loans generally require an existing mortgage. This excludes retirees who often own homes outright, but lack the income to service a standard commercial loan and lower income earners who may not qualify for bank lending.

The solution Rewiring Aotearoa is working with councils and the EECA to develop a rate payer assistance scheme. This would provide long-term low interest loans tied to the property via rates rather than to the individual, allowing a broader range of Kiwis to lower their cost of living through energy sovereignty.

Trials are also underway to find workable models for splitting solar benefits between landlords and tenants.   📍  📍 While we are seeing a market that's finding its footing, resale, profits are stabilizing, borrowers are locking in certainty with fixed rates. And while unemployment has ticked up the underlying job growth suggests resilience.

But navigating the stabilization phase requires a different strategy than booming times. Whether you're looking to buy your first home, expand your portfolio, or just figure out how to structure your mortgage in a higher, longer environment, you need a plan based on data, not on headlines. So join me at one of our free online classes called How to Succeed With Property Investing.

These events are all held live and held online, so you can ask questions and gain valuable insights and strategies tailored to today's market conditions regardless of where you live. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this free session will equip you with the key tools and insights to make confident, informed decisions.

Don't miss out. Register today and take the next step towards achieving your financial success. At the end of our free events, I'll tell you more about how we could help you if you were a client of ours to achieve your investing goals. So if you're interested in finding out more about how we can help you, go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz and register today.

  📍  📍 If you've already been to one of our free events and you'd like to know more about how we can help you on your journey as a client, book a no-obligation phone call or meeting with my husband Paul Roberts through our website. And that's www.propertyapprentice.co.nz.  Thanks for listening. 

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